Climate change impacts
on NATURAL SYSTEMS AND PATTERNS


2.3 UNDERGROUND WATER RUNOFF



Type of
knowledge
Results and interpretation
Observation and analysis methods
References
Reconstructions
European Alps:
Starkel (1966) affirms that the melting and disappearance of frozen ground could lead to deeper water tables and to changes in water circulation. In particular, it can be hypothesised that, under permafrost conditions, groundwater recharge was not possible, while, after permafrost disappearance, groundwater recharge occurred and reached high values as a consequence of the rainfall and snowmelt increase that occurred during the improvement of climatic conditions following the last glaciations.
  Starkel 1966 in Bertolini & al 2004 - A
Italian Alps (Northern Apenines):
Colder periods may explain more landslide activity due to less evapotranspiration that determines an increase in the groundwater recharge.
  Bertolini & al 2004 - A
Observations

Swiss Alps:
The effect of precipitation increase (especially since 1978) during the mild winters (since 1988) on often unfrozen and with low snow cover grounds, at altitude between 1000m and 1500m a.s.l contribute to an important modification of the hydrological cycle in Eastern Switzerland. With the freezing/defreezing cycles increase during winter, the efficacy infiltration increased strongly during the period between November and March and lead to an early saturation of the flysch are, with limited permeability during spring.

The precipitation and minimum temperature increase during winter is an aggrieving factor, with a direct effect on the water table level on surface and the water content of the unconsolidated materials in the Pre Alpine slopes under 1500 m a.s.l.

  Lateltin & al. 1997 - R: PNR31
Modeling
Italy - Alverà mudslide (Eastern Dolomites):
In the simulation of the 'current climate' (given by the recent 23 year average) evolution on the period ~1900-2100, the average temperature in winter (DJF) increases significantly, and, more importantly, the average winter temperatures are all above 0°C from the year 2050 onwards. Furthermore, precipitation in DJF decreases more strongly than in the other seasons. A combined effect of these findings is a clearly reduced storage of precipitation as snow. Therefore, the release of melt water, which, under the present conditions contributes to high groundwater levels and hence strong displacement in early spring, is significantly reduced.

GCM output is postprocessed with a statistical downscaling technique to derive local-scale climate change information from simulated atmospheric circulation patterns. The resulting precipitation and temperature series are introduced in a hydrological tank model, which calculates daily groundwater levels.

Dehn & al 2000 - A
Hypothesis

Swiss Alps:
The 0°C isotherm altitude during winter is preponderant for the water table reload in the landslides located in the Pre Alps flysch area.

The winter precipitation increase (more than 20%), in form of rain or snow would have direct effect on the ground water content and on the water table surface. During mild winters, these precipitations may infiltrate more easily in the unfrozen grounds. The period of efficient infiltration may increase of 30 to 50 days for altitude between 1000 m and 1500 m a.s.l.

  Lateltin & al. 1997 - R: PNR31
World / Europe (mountain):
Likely impacts of warming surface temperatures within the permafrost zone include active-layer thickening, basal melting causing permafrost thinning, and hydrogeological changes.
  Harris & al 2001 - A

 

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Legend of bibliographical references:
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* : study taken into account in WP7.
- A : Article (Peer reviewed publication)
- C : Comment
- E : Scientific study (unpublished)
- P : Proceedings
- R : Report
- Re : Experience Feedback
- T : Thesis
- W : Website